www.ji-magazine.lviv.ua
This is Ukraine
today. C'est l'Ukraine d'aujourd'hui.
Dies ist die
Ukraine heute. To jest Ukraina
dzisiaj.
Esta es la
actual Ucrania. Questo è l'Ucraina di oggi.
Esta é hoje a Ucrânia. Ukrajina je danas.
Это Украина сегодня. Це Україна сьогодні
12.02.2015
This is Ukraine today – February 12: "Normandy
Four" negotiations concluded in Minsk with a disappointing result for
Ukraine
U.S., UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa
February 12 –
"Normandy Four" negotiations concluded in Minsk with a disappointing
result for Ukraine. Putin did not give in on a single point – there will be no
withdrawal of Russian troops (they are, of course, nowhere close to Ukraine),
no immediate resumption of control over the border, no reinstatement of
sovereignty over occupied Crimea or Donbas. There are, however, the obligations
on behalf of Ukraine to service social needs of separatists, legalize their
armed gangs and hold fake elections under their watchful eye. The situation
looks a lot like the surrender of Sudetenland (Czechoslovakia) to Hitler.
February 12 – Total financial
assistance to Ukraine from the IMF and other organizations could amount to 40
billion dollars over 4 years, – said IMF’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde.
February 12 – Russian
Ministry for Emergency Situations has announced the preparations for the
14th so-called humanitarian aid convoy destined for Donbas – more weapons
will be transported, no doubt.
February 12 – Russia
has transferred another lot of military equipment and artillery to the
territory of Ukraine, controlled by militants – approximately 50 tanks, 40
"Grad", "Uragan" and "Smerch" multiple rocket
launch systems and 40 armored vehicles crossed Russian-Ukrainian border at
border crossing point Izvaryne, – said NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
February 12 – The
transfer of the amphibious assault ship “Vladivostok” (Mistral-class) to Russia
could begin as early as next week.
February 12 – EU High
Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Federica Mogherini does
not expect sanctions against Russia to be discussed during the summit of EU
member-states leaders to be held on Thursday.
February 12
– Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in
Europe (OSCE) Lamberto Zannier hassaid that at present it is
impossible to determine whether the militants in Donbas are also soldiers of
the regular Russian army. OSCE has completely exhausted itself as a
security-oriented organization.
February 12 -
Agreements reached in Minsk during the meeting of the leaders of the
countries of the "Normandy
quartet" are absolutely weak. This was stated by the President of
Lithuania, Dalia Grybaskaite, to
journalists in Brussels before the EU Summit.
"The fundamental part of
the resolution is the control of the borders. It was not agreed upon and not
resolved," she noted. "This
means that the border is open for crossing by whatever soldiers and whatever
artillery," remarked Grybaskaite.
"This means that the resolution is totally weak," emphasized
the President of Lithuania. She is also
not very optimistic about the agreements on the cease-fire.
"Five months ago
we already had one agreement about a cease-fire which was not implemented. Let's see what happens with this one,"
underlined Grybaskaite. "We will
observe in the next few days how at least these partial agreements will be
implemented," she added.
Timothy Ash: Minsk II
peace deal likely won't last long
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/14b7f39bd598c26b
Ukraine Update 2/11:
Minsk Agreement II & the Wizard of Oz
http://www.brianmefford.net/ukraine-update-211-minsk-agreement-ii-wizard-oz/
Medics on Ukraine front
lines
http://mashable.com/2015/02/05/medics-on-ukraine-frontlines/#:eyJzIjoiZyIsImkiOiJfbjdidnB3dGVsdHpoZDg2bCJ9
War is hell! (photo
report from occupied Vuhlehirsk)
http://www.buzzfeed.com/gabrielsanchez/pictures-from-the-front-lines-of-ukraine?utm_term=.miPGmedLX#.iiZqo76pZ
Russia lies... great
start to Minsk agreement (Savchenko cannot be released!!)
http://tass.ru/en/russia/777314
Timothy
Ash
Ukraine - deal thoughts
I guess with hindsight, a deal was always going to be done. Merkel was not
going to get on a flight to Minsk, after Kyiv, Moscow, and Berlin, and not get
something. And Putin needed to try and rebuild some bridges with Merkel, after
seemingly upsetting her at Brisbane. Merkel is probably the honest broker in
all this. She really feels for the Ukrainian position, but understands the real
threat from Russia - she reads Putin better than any other Western leader, and
cannot be bought. But it is Bismark-style real politik for Merkel, and she was
desperate to stop the fighting - almost at any cost, which is entirely
understandable. Hollande will likely get his aircraft carriers delivered, and
sees all this as offering the hope of ressurection in terms of his presidency at
home - a global leader, strutting the international stage and making Cameron,
et al look like poodles, or rather a bulldog with no teeth. Putin gets his
aircraft carriers, which will no doubt have a nice shiny berth now awaiting in
Sebastopol. Putin also fended off near term threats of sanctions from the West,
and can sell himself to allies in Europe (there are many) as a peacemaker -
again heading off further sanctions threats. He has also not agreed to very
much, as I don't think his signature is on the document, so if it fails (and it
likely will) he can blame others. He has also headed off the
threat of the US arming Ukraine - and therein he is in cahoots with Obama
himself, who will see this deal as being useful in fending off calls from the
DC consensus (including within his own administration) now to arm Ukraine - and
can return to his own "splendid isolation" or "strategic
patience" as it is now called stateside. That's a nice term for
doing as little as possible. Poroshenko gets his IMF programme, and can try and
roll out reforms attached to this to try and assure the supporters of Maydan
that this team is really the Real Deal in terms of the reforms they so desire.
Note the IMF press release was timed for 10am, just as news of the Minsk deal
broke - so my sense is that someone was telling the Ukrainians that an IMF deal
was contingent on a Minsk ceasefire deal. No ceasefire - no IMF deal. And
the IMF gets to roll out its new programme, which it has been working on for
months. Poroshenko probably also thinks that the ceasefire will buy time for
Ukraine to regroup, rearm against the clear and present danger of further
Russian intervention. But will it all stick/last? I just do not think so, as I
still fail to see from this deal what is different to Minsk I in terms of
delivery on Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine. Minsk I clearly did
not deliver for Russia, hence that ceasefire did not last long, so let's see
what is really different this time around. The issues of real
autonomy/federalism, and border control don't appear to be properly addressed
in this document. Constitutional reform towards the Russian agenda will be
impossible for Poroshenko to deliver. And finally and fundamentally why I do
not think that the status quo is sustainable - one year ago Russia felt the
need to annex Crimea, and intervene in eastern Ukraine. But one year ago
Ukraine was no threat to Russia as a) it was non aligned; b) popular support
for Nato membership was low single digits, and there was little support in
parliament or amongst political elites to drive Ukraine NATO membership. C) the west really did not want Ukraine in NATO as they saw this as
a red rag to the Russian bull, and as events have proved could not defend
Ukraine under NATO's TOR; c) the Ukrainian military had limited fighting
capability as was proven in the early days of the conflict, but subsequently
changed; d) the govt in Kyiv was weak and disarray and the Ukrainian
economy on the brink of collapse; e) and as events have proven Russia had de
facto control of Crimea via the stationing of 26,000 troops and the long term
BSF agreement. And f) and finally Ukrainians were not anti-russian or even
particularly anti-Putin. If Moscow was not a real threat a year ago, but
Moscow felt compelled to intervene, look at the risk from a Russian perspective
now from Ukraine - a) Ukraine is no longer non aligned. B) it now wants to join
NATO and opinion polls now show majority support for this. C) Ukraine is
rebuilding military capability and the military doctrine is now against the
threat from Russia; d) Ukraine has a reform admin in Kyiv, which has a real
chance of succeeding now with imf support. It can offer a rival and successful
model of development to Putin's power vertical and sovereign democracy. E)
Opinion polls show strong ukrainian opposition/distaste for the Putin regime.
So, net-net the above still suggests the risk of further future Russian
intervention in Ukraine.
P.S.: Please spread
this appeal as much as possible.
France, Belgique, Canada, Suisse
Le 12 février – Les pourparlers avec « le format Normandie »
sont terminés. Les résultats sont très décevants
pour l’Ukraine. Poutine n’a pas bougé: pas de retrait
des troupes étrangères qui, bien sûr, n’y sont pas, aucun
rétablissement de contrôle à la frontière, pas de
souveraineté de la
Crimée occupée ou du Donbass occupé. De
plus, l’Ukraine sera obligée de verser les allocations sociales aux
séparatistes, légalisqnt ainsi leur gangs criminels... et
organiser de fausses élections sous leur contrôle. Cela rappelle
étrangement la capitulation de l’Occident devant Hitler (abandon de la
region sudète de la Tchécoslovaquie).
Le 12 février – Christine Lagarde, la présidente du FMI a
déclaré que le montant total de l’aide financière du FMI
et d’autres sources à l'Ukraine a atteint 40 milliards de dollars en
quatre ans.
Le 12 février – Le Ministère de situations urgentes russe
annonce les préparatifs pour l’envoi du 14ème soi-disant
« convoi humanitaire » au Donbass... nouvelle livraison d’armes.
Le
12 février – « La
Russie a transféré du matériel militaire
et de l’artillerie sur les territoires actuellement contrôlés par
les militants terroristes. On
a fixé un mouvement régulier à la
la frontière russo-ukrainienne près d’Izvarine - cinquante chars,
quatre douzaines de MLRS Grad, Ouragan et Smertch, et le même nombre de
véhicules blindés. » - le porte-parole de
l’ATO, Andriy Lyssenko.
Le 12 février – La livraison du navire Mistral
« Vladivostok » pourrait se faire la semaine prochaine.
Le 12 février - Federica Mogherini, la Haute représentante
de l’UE pour la politique étrangère et la sécurité
ne pense pas que la question des sanctions contre la Russie sera abordée
au prochain sommet de l’UE.
Le 12 février -
Le Secrétaire général de l’OSCE, Lamberto Zannier dit
qu’à l'heure actuelle il est impossible de déterminer si les
militants combattant dans le Donbass sont des troupes régulières
de l’armée russe. L’OSCE
est devenue complètement aveugle et inutile....
Les poupées russes de la propagande de
Poutine en France
http://www.slate.fr/story/97835/IDC-russie-france-poutine
Lettre
ouverte à TF1 (JT 20h
08/02/2015
reportage Donetsk)
http://tf1-propagande-pro-poutin.webnode.fr/?aw=1
Le philosophe Michel Eltchaninoff dans la
tête de Vladimir Poutine video
http://www.lepoint.fr/monde/ukraine-dans-la-tete-de-vladimir-poutine-10-02-2015-1903801_24.php
P.S.: Faîtes circuler cet appel, SVP!
Україна
12 лютого - Завершилися
переговори "нормандської четвірки" у
Мінську. Результат для України невтішний. Путін не поступився жодним пунктом. Немає
ні виводу іноземних військ, яких, звісно, немає. Немає
негайного відновлення контролю над кордоном. Немає встановлення суверенітету
над окупованим Кримом чи Донбасом. Є зобовязання України оплачувати соціальні потреби сепаратистів, легалізувати їхні
бандформування, і під їхнім контролем знову провести фейкові вибори. Дуже
нагадує здачу Гітлеру Судетської області Чехословаччини.
12 лютого - Загальний обсяг фінансової допомоги Україні від МВФ і з інших
джерел за 4 роки може становити 40 млрд доларів. Про
це сказала глава МВФ Крістін Лагард
12 лютого - МНС РФ заявляє про підготовку до відправки 14-го так званого
"гуманітарного конвою" на Донбас - знову підвезуть
зброю.
12 лютого - Росія перекинула чергову партію військової техніки і артилерії на
територію України, підконтрольну бойовикам - в районі населеного пункту
Ізварине відбулося чергове переміщення через російсько-український кордон
півсотні танків, 4 десятків реактивних систем залпового вогню "Град",
"Ураган" та "Смерч" і такої ж кількості БТРів - речник АТО
Андрій Лисенко.
12 лютого - Процес передачі Росії десантного вертольотоносного
корабля-доку "Владивосток" класу "Містраль" може бути
запущений вже наступного тижня.
12 лютого - Високий представник ЄС з питань зовнішньої та безпекової політики
Федеріка Могеріні не очікує, що на саміті лідерів
країн Євросоюзу, який відбудеться в четвер, обговорюватиметься питання санкцій
проти РФ.
12 лютого - Генеральний секретар ОБСЄ Ламберто Заньєр
заявив, що на сьогоднішній день неможливо визначити, чи є бойовики на
Донбасі представниками регулярних частин російської армії. ОБСЄ себе остаточно
вичерпала як інструмент.
Постскриптум: Будь ласка, розповсюдьте цю інформацію якомога ширше.
We exspress our sincere gratitude to the International Renaissance Foundation that
supported this publication.
Висловлюємо вдячність Міжнародному фонду "Відродження" за підтримку цієї ініціативи.
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